SABA Urges South Africa to Block Prediction Markets Under Current Gambling Laws

The South African Bookmakers’ Association says prediction markets should not be authorised until lawmakers create a dedicated framework for exchange-style betting products.

The South African Bookmakers’ Association has called on regulators to treat prediction markets as exchange-style betting products that fall outside South Africa’s current gambling legislation.

In a position paper published on July 27, 2026, SABA warned that platforms allowing users to wager on political, economic, social and sporting outcomes are operating beyond South Africa’s existing licensing, taxation, responsible gambling and integrity controls.

The association pointed to reports that more than R700,000 was wagered on the selection of Johannesburg’s next mayor through Polymarket, despite the absence of local regulatory oversight. For SABA, the example shows that prediction markets are no longer a distant international issue, but an active regulatory gap inside South Africa.

SABA argues that prediction markets are similar in substance to peer-to-peer betting exchanges. In both models, users take opposing positions against one another, while the platform matches orders and earns commission or transaction fees instead of acting as the bookmaker.

That structure creates a legal problem. South Africa’s current framework is built mainly around bookmakers and totalisators, not platforms that merely facilitate bets between users. SABA says prediction markets should therefore not be authorised through existing licences until lawmakers define the category clearly.

The association also warned that political prediction markets create risks beyond gambling. Markets on elections, public appointments, legislative votes or government contracts may give participants a financial interest in public outcomes and create incentives for manipulation.

Sports integrity is another concern. SABA says products that allow users to profit from negative outcomes can increase risks around match-fixing, insider information, corruption and market manipulation.

Consumer protection and AML risks are also central to the argument. Offshore prediction markets may involve cross-border peer-to-peer flows, crypto assets and limited access to transaction records for South African authorities. Users also lack local safeguards such as self-exclusion, formal dispute procedures and responsible gambling controls.

SABA wants a dedicated legislative review covering gambling law, financial markets, election rules, consumer protection, AML obligations and integrity monitoring. Until then, it says prediction markets should be treated as part of the illegal offshore gambling market.

The position places pressure on South African regulators to clarify whether prediction markets are financial products, gambling products or a new hybrid category. For licensed operators, the message is direct: adding exchange-style prediction products under existing licences could carry legal and compliance risk.

The debate also reflects a wider global trend. Prediction markets are expanding quickly, but regulators are still deciding whether they are forecasting tools, derivatives, betting exchanges or unlicensed gambling products.

For South Africa, SABA’s position is clear: no authorisation before a specific legal framework is created.