Brazilian Presidential Candidates Split Over Betting Ban and R$12.2 Billion Tax Revenue at Risk

Brazil's regulated betting market has become an election issue, with presidential candidates proposing everything from a complete ban to higher taxes and tighter advertising rules, while questions remain over how the government would replace R$12.2 billion in annual tax revenue if legal betting were prohibited.

Brazil's presidential election campaign has opened a new debate over the future of online betting, less than two years after the country's fully regulated federal market began operating.

Four presidential candidacies currently support a complete ban on online betting platforms. Renan Santos has backed prohibition, while candidates representing PSTU, PCB and UP have taken similar positions. None has presented a detailed proposal explaining how the government would replace the R$12.2 billion in taxes collected from betting companies in 2025 if the regulated industry were closed.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is taking a different approach in his re-election programme. His platform supports maintaining and improving the existing regulatory system, including controls on player spending, monitoring household indebtedness, tighter credit rules and expanded mental-health support for people experiencing gambling problems. However, Lula has also recently spoken publicly about the possibility of much tougher action against betting companies, and his government is preparing a new provisional measure aimed at strengthening restrictions on the sector.

Flávio Bolsonaro has focused primarily on gambling-related debt. His proposals include preventing social assistance money from being used for betting and expanding financial education, rather than closing the regulated market. Ronaldo Caiado has called for tougher restrictions on betting advertising, including a ban on promotion through mass media and social networks, while Augusto Cury has argued for significantly higher taxation of operators.

The fiscal question is particularly important because Brazil's regulated market has quickly become a significant source of government revenue. Nationwide regulation took full effect on January 1, 2025, and the Ministry of Finance now lists 85 authorised companies. Operators must pay R$30 million for a five-year federal authorisation, which can cover up to three betting brands.

During 2025, regulated platforms received around R$220.6 billion in player deposits and generated R$36.9 billion in gross gaming revenue. The government collected R$12.2 billion in taxes, alongside another R$4.43 billion in statutory social allocations and additional supervisory fees.

A complete ban would therefore create two separate challenges: preventing players from moving to unlicensed offshore operators and replacing revenue currently generated by the legal market. At the same time, growing concerns over household debt, gambling addiction and aggressive advertising are increasing political pressure for further restrictions.

With the presidential campaign now bringing those questions into national politics, Brazil's betting framework appears likely to change regardless of the election result. The key difference is increasingly about how far those changes should go — from tighter regulation and taxation to removing legal online betting altogether.