AGOK warns Kenya’s draft gambling rules could squeeze smaller operators

The Association of Gaming Operators Kenya says the next layer of rules under the Gambling Control Act, 2025 may raise legal-market entry costs, narrow competition and hand more space to offshore operators.

Kenya’s gambling reform has moved into a more contentious phase after the Gambling Regulatory Authority opened public participation on six draft 2026 regulations designed to operationalise the Gambling Control Act, 2025. The official notice set the consultation window from 25 March to 13 April 2026 and scheduled the Nairobi stakeholder forum for 31 March to 1 April, showing that the market debate has now shifted from the law itself to the rules that will govern licensing, advertising and day-to-day compliance.

The biggest friction point is cost. Under the draft Licensing Regulations, an online bookmaker would face a KES 3m application fee, a KES 8m licence fee and a KES 3m annual operating fee, while a hybrid online licence covering casino, bookmaker, public lottery and bingo is priced at KES 8m for the application, KES 12m for the licence and KES 6m annually. The draft Advertising Regulations add a separate KES 10,000 application fee plus an approval charge equal to 10% of the advertising budget.

Industry resistance has been immediate. Reporting from the public participation forum says stakeholders described the package as “unprecedented” and “punitive,” with operators arguing that high application charges, large security requirements and the new advertising levy could trigger business closures, weaken tax collection and push legitimate demand toward unregulated offshore supply. One AGOK-linked representative argued the industry is already heavily taxed, while another questioned how an application fee could exceed the licence fee in some categories.

AGOK’s broader position has been consistent for months. In a separate interview, chief executive John Mutua said investors need requirements that do not change suddenly and a tax regime that is stable and predictable, while warning that unstable policy ultimately helps offshore operators that do not bear the same local obligations. That helps explain why the association is not rejecting tighter regulation in principle, but is pushing back against a rollout it sees as too abrupt and too expensive for smaller licensed firms.

The regulator, however, can point to a strong policy rationale. Kenya’s 2025 Act created the Gambling Regulatory Authority, introduced a more modern framework for online gambling and requires applicants to deposit security prescribed under the law. In the published Act, online gambling security is set at KES 100m, underscoring how far the state wants to move from the old 1966-era model toward a tightly supervised system. The real question now is whether the final regulations strike a workable balance between control and market access. If they remain close to the current drafts, the likely outcome is a more consolidated legal market with higher barriers to entry — precisely the scenario AGOK says could weaken channelisation rather than strengthen it.