Study Finds 84% of Betting Operators Most Recommended by Instagram Are Illegal in Brazil

A PUC-Rio study analysing more than 55,000 Instagram accounts found that 84% of the betting operators most frequently surfaced by the platform's recommendation system were not authorised to operate in Brazil.

Instagram's recommendation system is directing Brazilian users toward a large number of unauthorised betting operators, according to new research from the Rede em Jogo project at PUC-Rio's CondadoLab.

The researchers analysed more than 55,000 Instagram accounts and compared betting operators appearing in the recommendation network with the official list maintained by Brazil's Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA). They found that 84% of the operators among the most frequently recommended accounts lacked Brazilian authorisation.

The study found that the recommendation chain can begin after a user follows just one gambling-related account. Instagram may then suggest other betting brands, tipsters, sports traders and content creators, gradually expanding the user's exposure to the wider betting ecosystem.

Among the 100 most frequently recommended betting-related profiles identified by the researchers, the accounts collectively had more than six million followers and around 114,000 posts. The network included operators, gambling influencers and specialist betting media.

Researchers also identified content presenting gambling as a potential form of income or investment. Some influencers advertised paid prediction groups, claimed to identify favourable moments for casino games or promoted supposed techniques for improving results in games based largely on chance.

The 84% figure does not necessarily mean that all of the companies involved are unlicensed everywhere. Some may hold licences in other jurisdictions, but without authorisation from Brazil's SPA they cannot legally offer federally regulated fixed-odds betting to Brazilian customers. The Ministry of Finance maintains a public list of authorised companies and brands.

The study also highlights a different challenge from the illegal-domain and payment-blocking measures already being used by Brazilian authorities. Even when regulators restrict access to unauthorised websites, social-media recommendation systems can continue directing users toward new brands, profiles and promotional content.

Researchers behind Rede em Jogo argue that greater attention should therefore be paid to how digital platforms identify and moderate illegal gambling promotion, rather than focusing exclusively on operators themselves. The study does not claim that Instagram creates the gambling content, but concludes that its recommendation system can significantly increase users' exposure to unauthorised operators.

For Brazil's regulated betting market, the findings show that enforcement is increasingly becoming a social-media issue as well as a licensing and payments issue. As authorities tighten controls on illegal websites and financial flows, the visibility of unauthorised brands on major digital platforms could become another important front in the country's fight against the black market.