Brazil’s Betting Ban Could Cost Public Finances Nearly Three Times the Government’s Estimate

Brazil's betting prohibition could result in R18.2billionin lost public revenue by the end of 2027,nearly three times the government's official estimate of R6.8 billion, according to a new industry analysis.

Brazil's nationwide betting ban could have a significantly greater impact on public finances than initially projected, raising concerns about lost tax revenue and funding for public programmes.

In an interview with Valor published on October 19, Planning Minister Bruno Moretti confirmed that the government expects to lose R1.5billioninrevenueduringthefinalmonthsof2026andanotherR5.3 billion in 2027, bringing the combined estimate to R$6.8 billion.

However, a new analysis by industry publication BNLData, based on official tax collection figures obtained through Brazil's Access to Information Law, estimates the total revenue loss at approximately R$18.2 billion between October 2026 and December 2027.

According to BNLData, the government's calculation primarily reflects contributions linked to gross gaming revenue (GGR), while overlooking several other revenue streams generated by licensed operators.

In 2025, Brazil's regulated betting industry contributed R14.45 billion through taxes and statutory payments.Federal revenue from the sector reached R7.284 billion in the first half of 2026, equivalent to an annualised rate of approximately R$14.6 billion.

The broader calculation includes corporate income tax, social contributions, regulatory fees and other payments. BNLData also argues that the government's projections do not fully reflect the sector's previous growth.

Moretti acknowledged that authorities are considering reducing spending linked to betting revenue to limit the budgetary impact. However, such adjustments could affect legally designated beneficiaries in sports, tourism, public security, healthcare and education.

A separate estimate from a financial institution consulted by Valor places potential losses at R$11.2 billion in 2027, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the ban's financial consequences.

The growing discrepancy between official and industry estimates adds another dimension to Brazil's controversial betting prohibition. While the government prioritises consumer protection, the financial consequences could place additional pressure on public budgets and programmes previously supported by regulated gambling revenue.