Arsenal remain Opta supercomputer favourites in tightening Premier League title race

Opta’s supercomputer still backs Arsenal to win the 2025/26 Premier League title, giving Mikel Arteta’s side the highest title probability ahead of Manchester City and Aston Villa – despite a historically fragile record when leading at Christmas.

Arsenal head into the final fixture block of 2025 as the team to beat. After reclaiming top spot with a 2–1 home win over Brighton, the Gunners sit first with 42 points from 18 matches, two points clear of Manchester City and three ahead of Aston Villa.

According to projections published by Opta’s data team on The Analyst and reported by several outlets, the supercomputer assigns Arsenal roughly a 65% chance of winning the title, confirming them as clear favourites over City (about 25–27%) and surprise contenders Aston Villa (around 6–8%). The model is based on 10,000 season simulations that factor in team strength, remaining fixtures and historical performance, rather than just the current table.

Yet history offers a note of caution. Opta’s analysis underscores that Arsenal have often stumbled from this position: they have led the top flight at Christmas eight times since 1947–48 without going on to lift the trophy, including recent near-misses under Arteta in 2022–23 and 2023–24. Meanwhile, Manchester City’s track record of hunting down festive leaders keeps Pep Guardiola’s side firmly in the conversation, even if their probability is lower than Arsenal’s.

For betting operators and data-driven bettors, the supercomputer numbers reinforce the current market view: Arsenal are deserved favourites on underlying metrics, but not untouchable. Title odds will continue to react to key head-to-head fixtures – including clashes with City and Villa – plus injuries, fixture congestion and January transfer business. With three clubs given more than a 5% chance of finishing top, Opta’s model suggests a genuinely competitive run-in rather than a one-team procession.